Our Grocery Bill Was Two Hours From a 50 Percent Shock
There was a countdown clock (again) ticking toward midnight, and on the other side of it, who else? Trump and this time — his threat of a 50 percent tax on billions of dollars in goods we buy every day. That was Tuesday night. According to the Associated Press, Trump announced on Truth Social, less than two hours before the deadline, that he was pausing new 50 percent tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian imports for three days because the two countries had reached a deal, subject to the finalization of documents.
Take a breath, but not a deep one. A pause of three days is not a trade agreement. It is a snooze button.
Here is why this matters to us, and not just to trade lawyers. Tariffs are paid by American importers, who pass the cost along to us at the register, as the Associated Press notes. The United States and Canada sold each other $880 billion in goods and services last year, according to the same reporting. The targeted products run from hockey sticks to tongue depressors, and the underlying disputes touch dairy, alcohol and automobiles. When taxes like these hit, we feel it in the grocery aisle, at the lumber yard and on the car lot, at a moment when the cost of living is already the top frustration heading into November’s midterms.
The deeper story is how we got here. The Supreme Court ruled five months ago, in a six to three decision, that the emergency powers law the administration had used for its global tariffs does not authorize tariffs at all, a ruling that could require up to $175 billion in refunds to importers, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. So the administration reached for a different tool: Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, the infamous Smoot Hawley law that economists blame for deepening the Great Depression. According to the Associated Press, Section 338 has never been used before, requires no investigation, allows tariffs up to 50 percent and sets no limit on how long they can last.
Let that sink in. Trade policy affecting our household budgets is being run through a dusted off Depression-era statute, announced by social media post, with deadlines measured in hours.
To be fair, the administration has a case to make. American dairy farmers have long complained that Canada tightly limits how much U.S. milk product crosses the border, and the White House says the deal commits Canada to dropping measures it considers discriminatory against American alcohol, dairy and vehicles. Using leverage to renegotiate the North American trade pact is a legitimate goal. But Canada has not confirmed those commitments, and Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc told reporters his country’s dairy protections remain entirely intact, according to the Canadian Press. Two governments describing the same handshake in opposite terms is not a deal. It is a press release and an all too familiar ploy from this administration’s playbook.
Businesses agree. The head of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce called the pause a limbo state that falls short of the certainty a signed agreement would provide, as reported by the Associated Press.
We deserve better than economic policy by countdown clock. Congress holds the taxing power for a reason: so that decisions this large get debated, not posted. In three days the clock starts again. Whatever happens at that deadline, we should remember that stability is not a partisan idea. It is the foundation every family budget, every small business and every farm in this country is built on. Go beyond the headlines…
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