Global witnesses to the January 6 (2021) riots at the US Capitol, when an estimated 2,500 Trump supporters overtook Capitol guards and vandalized the chambers and offices of Congress, were horrified. Yet, in the aftermath of this historic assault, what’s arguably more disturbing is how many U.S. politicians and citizens continue to defend the rioters—or deny Trump’s culpability altogether. A new study offers insight into why: for many white Republicans, it wasn’t just about politics. It was about identity.
Researchers from Harvard found that white Republicans who believe white Americans face increasing discrimination were far less likely to withdraw their support for Trump after January 6. This perception—what scholars call “racial status threat”— appears to have shielded the former president from broader backlash within his party, despite the violent and anti-democratic nature of the attack.
While previous studies showed a modest dip in Republican approval for Trump immediately after the insurrection, this new analysis revealed something more durable: support remained steady among those who felt their group’s racial or cultural standing was eroding. In some cases, support for Trump even increased among respondents who also reported economic insecurities—often a proxy for racial resentment.
This phenomenon played out not just in the days following the Capitol riot but persisted in surveys conducted up through 2024. Across multiple datasets, white Republicans who did not feel threatened showed a clear drop in Trump support. But those who did feel threatened? Their loyalty held strong, even as the rest of the country processed the gravity of what had happened.
What does this mean in practical terms? According to the study’s authors, it suggests that for many voters, democratic norms take a backseat to group identity. If they believe their group—white conservatives—is under siege, then violations of those norms may feel justified, even necessary. In this light, Trump’s rhetoric and actions are seen not as dangerous, but as protective.
That has major implications for democratic accountability. If voters excuse anti-democratic behavior in the name of identity protection, it becomes harder to hold leaders accountable—no matter how extreme their actions. And while the study focuses on white Republicans, it raises broader questions about how identity, fear, and perceived loss of status can erode the guardrails of democracy for any group.
In short: if January 6 didn’t change minds, it may be because minds weren’t weighing democratic norms to begin with—they were protecting what they saw as their place in America. Go beyond the headlines…
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