The Race Nobody Watches Could Decide the One Everybody Does
Pop quiz. Who certifies your state’s election results? If you blanked, you’re not alone. Most of us couldn’t name our secretary of state or our state attorney general on a bet. These are the dull, paperwork heavy jobs that nobody campaigns on and nobody lines up to vote for. That obscurity is exactly why a quiet but dangerous trend deserves our attention right now.
A new analysis from States United Action, released this week, found that at least 53 candidates who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election are running for statewide offices that play a direct role in running, certifying, or enforcing elections. They’re on ballots in 23 states. Five of those are presidential swing states. Thirty nine states are holding races this year for secretary of state, governor, or attorney general, and these are the people who, depending on the state, count the ballots, sign off on the totals, and decide which legal challenges have merit.
In 2020, those bureaucratic jobs suddenly mattered. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger refused Trump’s request to “find” 11,780 votes. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson watched armed protesters show up outside her house. Arizona’s then governor, Doug Ducey, declined to interfere in certification despite enormous pressure. Each of those officials put process over politics. Each one is on the way out. And in every one of those states, candidates who reject the results of 2020 are now running to take their place.
The Arizona race is the loudest example. Representative Andy Biggs, currently the GOP front runner for governor, voted against certifying the 2020 election while serving in Congress. He also called a state legislator at the time to explore other avenues for tossing the result. He’s not an outlier in his state. People who deny election outcomes are running for all three of Arizona’s top statewide jobs at once.
Here’s the part that might surprise you. The number of election deniers on the ballot this cycle is actually down. After the 2022 midterms, NPR’s analysis showed that Republican secretary of state candidates who pushed 2020 conspiracies underperformed their tickets by roughly three points in competitive states. States United pegged the penalty at the same range. Voters, in other words, have already proven they don’t love this stuff. The candidates running on it now are mostly clustered in deep red states or in primaries where Trump’s endorsement is the prize. That’s progress of a kind. It’s also no comfort if you live in Phoenix or Atlanta.
Why does any of this matter to those of us who don’t follow election law for fun? Because the certification process is the plumbing of democracy. We focus on the candidates and the campaigns and the polling, but none of it works unless someone neutral signs the document at the end. If the people holding the pens decide ahead of time which results they’ll accept, the popular vote becomes a suggestion. That’s not a partisan concern. It applies whether you’re cheering for Democrats to retake the House or rooting for the GOP to hold it.
Layer in the Trump administration’s recent executive order pushing federal voter rolls and mail ballot restrictions through the Postal Service, and you can see the pressure building from both ends. Federal policy squeezes the system. State officials decide whether to push back. In 2020, the answer was yes. In 2028, the answer depends on who we elect this November.
So look down ballot this year. The races for the people who count the votes might matter more than the races for the people getting them. Go beyond the headlines…
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