LatinaLista — As we get closer to 2012, everyone from pundits to polling organizations are trying to predict this country’s political future for the next year. Two such organizations, Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, feel they have a pretty good handle on the future thanks to their database of 120,000 interviews — 10,000 just from this year — of likely American voters.
Culling their database, the organizations have jointly released their findings of what awaits politicians.
Here are a few of their findings:
Hispanic voters hold increasingly negative views of the Republican Party. Since January, favorable views of the Republican Party among Hispanics has dropped 13 points. In the Congressional vote, Democrats are winning Hispanics by a two-to-one margin over Republicans, equaling 2008 levels. President Obama holds a 58 to 31 percent lead over Mitt Romney and shows no signs of weakening.
Independents are growing, while the Republican Party is lifeless. The percentage who think of themselves as independents has grown 6 points since 2004, a gradual increase that puts them almost on par with the percentage identifying as Republicans. Meanwhile, the Republican Party is stagnant. Party identification for Republicans has not grown at all over the last 5 years.
The Republican Party is deeply unpopular since the 2010 election. Warm, favorable feelings for the Republican Party have crashed and cool, unfavorable feelings for the Republican Party are skyrocketing. Warm ratings have dropped 7 points to 33 percent. Almost one-half give the party a cool, unfavorable rating.
Youth pull back from both parties. Young voters hold back from both parties and are increasingly identifying as independents. Democratic identification among young people has dropped, but Republicans have not improved their standing with these voters. On our thermometer scale, we have seen a complete collapse for the Republican Party among youth since 2010.