The findings of the latest Pew analysis of the 2024 presidential election are hard to accept if you’re not a fan of the outcome—or a validation if your candidate won. Either way, this bipartisan analysis provides much more than food for thought for the losing political party; it paints a picture that shows in real time a monumental shift in the American psyche, one that also leaves little room for the conspiracy-fueled claims that the election was manipulated.
Here’s what Pew’s data tells us, in plain terms:
Even if every single eligible voter in the country had shown up to cast a ballot—which never happens—Donald Trump still would have won the 2024 election. In fact, his margin of victory over Democrat Kamala Harris would have been even larger in that scenario: 48% to 45%. This counters the long-standing political assumption that higher turnout automatically benefits Democrats, based on the belief that young, non-white, and lower-income voters—the groups least likely to turn out—tend to lean Democratic.
But Pew’s deep-dive into the numbers reveals that assumption no longer holds.
The analysis, based on nearly 9,000 verified voter interviews (a massive sample by polling standards), found that non-voters—if they had voted—would have leaned toward Trump, 44% to 40%. That’s a dramatic shift from 2020 and 2016, when non-voters said they would have favored the Democratic candidate.
In short, Trump’s coalition has evolved.
- His 2024 voter base became more diverse and younger. In 2016, nearly 9 in 10 Trump voters were white. By 2024, that number dropped to 78%.
- Meanwhile, Harris’ voter base actually became whiter, reversing a previous trend for Democrats.
- Trump also held onto more of his 2020 supporters than Harris did of Biden’s.
- And crucially, Trump won over more of those who sat out in 2020 but showed up in 2024.
So what does all this mean for conspiracy theories?
Pew’s research offers a straightforward, data-driven rebuttal to claims of vote manipulation or fraud deciding the outcome. The reality is, based on both actual voter turnout and hypothetical full participation, Trump was the preferred choice among eligible voters in 2024.
It’s a finding that suggests the political landscape has shifted in ways that defy old assumptions. More importantly, it shows that the results weren’t the product of suppressed voters, shady software, or fraudulent ballots—but of evolving coalitions and changing voter behavior.
In other words, it wasn’t manipulation that won Trump the White House—it was math. Go beyond the headlines…
Trump still would have won in 2024 even if everyone had turned out to vote, Pew finds
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