Could it be the push of religion into public schools? Or the trauma of holding school drills preparing for mass shooters? Or the dismissiveness towards education that this administration seems to support? Or the juvenile glee when Elon Musk’s revs up his chainsaw? Whatever the reason, young people, notably 18 to 21, are turning noticeably partisan — just not in the direction most expected. According to a new Yale Youth Poll, this youngest voting bloc now leans Republican by nearly 12 points when asked who they’d support in the 2026 Congressional elections. That’s a sharp break from the usual trend of younger voters leaning blue — and it’s raising serious alarms for Democrats ahead of the midterms.
The shift isn’t uniform across Gen Z. Voters aged 22 to 29 still favor Democrats by 6.4 points, but that under-21 surge toward the GOP is fueling speculation that something fundamental is changing in youth politics. Whether it’s the rise of culture wars, frustration with economic instability, or feeling alienated by progressive messaging, this growing conservative tilt helped Donald Trump return to the White House in 2024 — and it might not be a fluke.
One standout from the poll is Vice President JD Vance, who enjoys a +65 favorability rating overall and is especially popular among under-30 Republicans. If he runs in 2028, more than half of Republican voters say they’d support him in a primary. On the other side, Kamala Harris leads among young Democrats, with a +60 rating—but only 27.5% say they’d vote for her in a hypothetical 2028 primary.
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval among 18- to 29-year-olds climbed to nearly 53% earlier this year, according to AtlasIntel. That’s a stunning stat, considering how roundly he was rejected by young voters just a few cycles ago. Still, enthusiasm isn’t universal — a CBS/YouGov poll found that 56% of voters disapprove of Trump’s economic policies, showing there’s still room for Democrats to mount a comeback if they reconnect with youth concerns.
The implications? Huge. As political scientist David B. Cohen warns, “If [young voters] are eroding, where do [Democrats] make up for that?” To stay competitive, the party will need to better understand young men in particular — and fast.
The takeaway? Don’t assume youth equals liberal. With culture, economics, and identity in flux, today’s young voters are less predictable—and more politically powerful — than ever. Go beyond the headlines…
Young People Are Now Overwhelmingly Republican
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