November 27, 2024

An analysis of the 2024 presidential election results is as puzzling as the outcome: Four states where voters sent Trump to the White House also voted to send Democrats to the Senate. This partisan disparity is called a mismatch. In the 2024 election, the rate of mismatches is “twice as many ‘mismatches’ between states’ presidential and U.S. Senate results as in all Senate elections held in 2020, 2021 and 2022 combined.” How do we explain it? Well, it could be because voters are increasingly splitting their tickets, prioritizing individual candidates over party loyalty. Another factor could be strategic voting: in battleground states, voters might choose Senate candidates from the opposing party to act as a check on presidential power, reflecting a desire for balance in governance. Additionally, strong local campaigns and candidate appeal often transcend national party narratives, leading voters to make decisions based on personality or track record rather than party alignment. Or it could be the ugly reality of men not yet mature enough to handle a female president. At any rate, this growing trend of mismatches reveals an electorate that is both divided, pragmatic (and perhaps gender-biased?), willing to navigate between ideological extremes in search of their perception of who is stronger in the Oval Office; Is what is happening in Africa the canary in the coal mine of what awaits us all?; Remember those bands of play-soldiers who on the weekends would caravan down to the US-Mexico border, wait in the beds of pickups, with their rifles slung over their shoulders waiting to spot undocumented immigrants crossing the border illegally just so they could take verbal and physical potshots at them? It seems, they’re still around and can’t wait for Trump’s “Day One” immigration move; and Germany is creating a new app for its citizens, just in case Russia gets any ideas. Go beyond the headlines…

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